Energy mix: What do Japanese people want?

February 9, 2015

EDITORIAL: Policy debate on energy sources needs viewpoint of consumers

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/views/editorial/AJ201502090028

A working group of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has started discussing Japan’s future energy mix. The group will debate which power sources should provide how much of the energy the nation will consume in 2030, with plans to reach its conclusion by around June this year.

Their debate should focus on two central issues: how to reduce nuclear power generation and how large the share of renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power should be in the overall energy supply.

The group’s work is an attempt to map out the future of this nation, which has suffered severely from the harrowing accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.

IS 15 PERCENT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LIMIT?

In the basic energy plan approved by the Cabinet in April last year, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration opted for continued power generation at nuclear plants that have met the new safety standards of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA). But the blueprint also called for lowering the ratio of nuclear power as much as possible.

Before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, atomic energy accounted for 28.6 percent of Japan’s total electricity production. Currently, there are 48 nuclear reactors across Japan. The NRA has received applications for its safety screenings for 21 reactors, including some under construction. Four reactors are now almost certain to be restarted.

Assuming that all reactors that have passed the NRA’s safety assessments will be brought back on stream and that the government-set limit of 40 years for the operational life of reactors is observed, the share of nuclear power generation in the nation’s total power output will become around 15 percent by 2030. If the lifetimes of certain reactors are extended and plans to build new nuclear plants or expand existing facilities are approved, the ratio will be around 20 to 25 percent.

In either case, the share of nuclear energy in Japan’s power production will be lower than the figure before the Fukushima accident. That means, the government contends, nuclear power generation in this country will diminish.

No member of the industry ministry’s working group is arguing for phasing out nuclear power generation by 2030. It is widely expected that the panel’s debate concerning the share of nuclear power will revolve around the range between 15 and 25 percent.

But is 15 percent acceptable as the lowest possible share of nuclear power in Japan’s overall energy supply in 2030?

At this moment, Japan is producing no electricity from nuclear energy. After the triple meltdown at the Fukushima plant, two reactors at the Oi nuclear power plant in Fukui Prefecture temporarily resumed operations. But the two reactors were shut down again in September 2013 for regular inspections, and no reactor has since been restarted.

PLAN SHOULD REFLECT REALITY OF NO NUCLEAR POWER

The lack of nuclear power generation, however, did not cause a major power outage last summer thanks to steady electricity saving efforts by consumers, wider use of energy efficient equipment, and arrangements among established utilities for mutual supply of electricity beyond the borders of the regions they serve. No serious problem has occurred this winter, either, at least to date.

Given the large risk that quake-prone Japan takes on by depending on nuclear power, it is vital to phase out nuclear power generation as soon as possible. It is not unreasonable to set a target of terminating nuclear power generation completely by 2030.

Japanese people have a strong will to avoid using nuclear power as much as possible. In various opinion polls, a majority of the respondents expressed opposition to plans to restart idled reactors. A growing number of Japanese are also voicing their desire to see an increase in production of electricity by using renewable energy sources.

It is true that some aged thermal power plants have been dusted off to plug the hole left by the loss of nuclear power generation. The situation has also caused some other serious problems, including hikes in electricity rates made necessary by increased imports of fossil fuels.

Even so, any vision for the future of Japan’s energy supply that is based on the assumption that the ratio of nuclear power generation will rise to 15 percent from the current zero would be divorced from public opinion.

CHANGING ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

The electric power market will be deregulated further in the coming years. The government plans to submit to the current Diet session a legal revision to complete the process of power deregulation.

Under the plan, electricity rates will be fully liberalized by 2020. The long-running system of regional monopolies by established electric utilities will be scrapped, and power transmission operations will be separated from the power generation business.

The scheduled market liberalization will allow consumers to freely choose the utilities and power sources they use.

It will even be possible for consumers to buy power from a combination of multiple suppliers using different power sources from the viewpoints of prices and environmental impact. There will be competition among electric utilities.

The deregulation will also prompt consumers to review their choices of power sources and switch suppliers accordingly, thereby making it necessary to reduce electricity production from certain sources while increasing power output from others.

That will be a dramatic change from the era when the energy mix was basically determined only by the supply side.

Despite all these changes, there will still be room for government involvement. It will be impossible to leave market forces to deal with all necessary energy policy decisions.

The government needs to show leadership in responding to international challenges like how to stem global warming. As for the feed-in tariff system, in which utilities are required to buy electricity produced with renewable energy at fixed rates, it is the government’s responsibility to determine the purchase prices.

Considering that electricity is vital for people’s lives, we can safely assume that the government will have to continue playing a key role in securing a stable power supply. The government, for instance, needs to provide policy support to ensure that power is also supplied to underpopulated, rural areas and make policy responses to such emergencies as sudden and sharp rises in the prices of resources.

Still, the ratios of the components of the energy mix will assume different implications. They will become more like policy targets and may eventually be replaced by “guideline ranges.”

The last time the composition of power sources was determined was in 2010, by the administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan.

At that time, the government’s focus in making the decision was on the fight against global warming. The energy plan called for building at least 14 new nuclear reactors by 2030.

Then, the unprecedented nuclear accident at the Fukushima plant, which was triggered by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, forced the administration of Hatoyama’s successor, Naoto Kan, to scrap the energy supply blueprint. And now, power deregulation is making progress.

Over the past five years, the environment surrounding energy supply has changed drastically. More than anything else, Japanese people’s perceptions about power consumption have changed radically.

That makes it all the more important for policymakers to pay sufficient attention to the needs of consumers in pondering the future of the nation.

We want the government to make discussions that can obtain the understanding of the people.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 8