What electricity mix for 2030?

April 8, 2015

Industry ministry seeks renewable energy ratio of 20% to 25% in 2030

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201504080030

By TOMOYOSHI OTSU/ Staff Writer

The industry ministry rejected a proposal by the Environment Ministry and is calling for renewable energy sources to supply “between 20 and 25 percent” of Japan’s electricity in 2030, sources said April 7.

The Environment Ministry on April 3 had called for a range between 24 percent and 35 percent.

However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that plan was unrealistic, and it proposed a lower range to avoid increases in electricity charges and to curb the costs for corporate activities.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on April 7 received a report from a ruling Liberal Democratic Party task force on the nation’s “energy mix” for 2030. The contents are almost identical to the proposals of the industry ministry.

“Based on the ideas described in the report, I want to proceed (with the energy mix plan),” Abe said.

Renewable energies include not only solar power, wind power and geothermal power but also hydraulic power.

In fiscal 2013, renewable energies, centering on hydraulic power, accounted for 11 percent of Japan’s electricity supply.

The industry ministry plans to double the ratio by 2030. During the period, the combined ratio of solar power and wind power is expected to increase from 2 percent to 10 percent.

The ratios of hydraulic power and geothermal power will likely remain unchanged because it is difficult to construct large-scale dams and environmental assessments for constructing geothermal power plants requires much time.

The ratio of nuclear power will be around 20 percent in 2030, according to the ministry’s plan. The proposal does not mention replacing old nuclear reactors or building new ones. It assumes that current nuclear reactors will continue operating even after they have reached their lifespan of 40 years.

The industry ministry plans to coordinate its opinions with the LDP, junior coalition partner Komeito and the Environment Ministry about the energy mix plan for 2030.

The industry ministry will submit a draft of the plan to its experts’ council at the end of this month. The proposal is expected to be completed by the end of May.

The ministry calculated the power generation capacities of renewable energy sources and the costs for 2030 based on several factors, including the amount of electricity that can be accepted on the current power grid and construction plans for wind farms.

It calculated that a ratio of renewable energies much higher than 20 percent would require more than 1 trillion yen (about $8.3 billion) for expansion of the power grid and other measures, resulting in sky-high electricity charges, the sources said.

The Environment Ministry’s calculations showed that the ratio of renewable energies could be raised to between 24 percent and 35 percent.

But industry minister Yoichi Miyazawa refused to use that result, saying, “It does not pay sufficient consideration to feasibility.”

The industry ministry places importance on nuclear power, coal-fired thermal power, hydraulic power and geothermal power as “base-load electric sources,” which indicate their power generation costs are low and their facilities can be operated around the clock.

The ministry wants to raise the combined ratio of those base-load electric sources to more than 60 percent, matching the ratios in the United States and some European countries.

It is difficult for Japan to raise the ratio of coal-fired thermal power because of concerns about the large quantities of greenhouse gas emissions.

But the ministry also does not want to depend on solar power or wind power, citing their high operational costs and unstable power supplies.