Only 33% renewables in 2040

August 16, 2016

Renewable energy likely to only make up 33% of Japan's total output in 2040: research

http://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20160816/p2a/00m/0na/013000c

Renewable energy such as solar and wind power is predicted to account for only 33 percent of Japan's total energy output in 2040 -- the eighth spot among the world's top nine CO2 emitting countries and regions, according to a report released by British research organization Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

BNEF predicts that renewable energy will account for 45 percent of the world's total energy output in 2040. BNEF's long-term forecast shows that the portion of renewable energy occupying Japan's total power to be generated in 2040 is expected to remain small at a time when the world is moving ahead to shift away from fossil fuels.

BNEF came up with a long-term forecast on the energy mix of the world's 110 countries as of 2040 after taking into account each country's energy policy, costs of generating electricity through each method and their market competitiveness, among other factors.

According to the report, by 2040, Brazil will top the list of countries with the highest ratios of renewable energy to their total energy output at 92 percent, followed by Canada at 83 percent, the European Union (EU) at 70 percent and Mexico at 69 percent. Brazil and Canada are highly expected to introduce hydraulic power generation while the EU is forecast to dominate the market as it is likely to take advantage of lower solar and wind power generation costs in such countries as Germany, the report says.

Because many of the new coal-fired thermal power stations being built in Japan are expected to continue to operate even in 2040, Japan is not expected to have much room for adopting additional renewable energy, the report predicts. Japan set a goal of having renewable energy account for 22 to 24 percent of the country's total energy output, but even if the goal is achieved, BNEF says that Japan will not be able to further increase renewable energy output by 2040 unless it takes new policy measures such as forcing coal-fired thermal power stations to shut down.

Under the so-called Paris Agreement, a new framework adopted late last year for combating global warming, the international community is effectively committed to zero greenhouse gas emissions in the latter half of this century, for which efforts in the power sector to shift away from fossil fuels will play a great role. A BNEF official in Japan said that renewable energy cannot be widely accepted quite easily in Japan partly because it is difficult to cut renewable energy costs due to high labor costs.